Juneyao Airlines (603885) Third Quarterly Report Review: Widebody Aircraft Profits Begin to Break Low and Try to Enjoy Premium Moment Dividend

Juneyao Airlines (603885) Third Quarterly Report Review: Widebody Aircraft Profits Begin to Break Low and Try to Enjoy Premium Moment Dividend

Key points of investment Juneyao Airlines released three quarterly reports in 1919: operating income in 19Q349.

4.2 billion, an increase of 18 years.

17%, achieving net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.

580,000 yuan, a ten-year average of 19.

50%; deducted non-net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company.

56 ppm, a 10-year increase2.

53%.

Demand growth continued to rise, and load factors were largely flat.

On January 9, 19, Juneyao Airlines launched a passenger capacity of 306.

3.6 billion seat kilometers, an increase of 17 in ten years.

72%, of which domestic routes increased by 13 in ten years.

12%, the international route increased by 46 in ten years.

05%, regional airlines increased by 25 in ten years.

86%.

As of the end of September 19, Juneyao Airlines currently holds 68 Airbus A320 series (of which 41 Airbus A320, 27 Airbus A321), 5 Boeing B787-9, and Jiuyuan Airlines currently holds 18 Boeing 737 series aircraft.

The unit cost is well controlled, and the profit of the wide-body machine is expected to come out of the trough.

On January 9, 19, Juneyao Airlines’ total operating costs totaled 117.

13 ppm, an increase of 20 in ten years.

01%, slightly higher than the growth rate of operating scale.

Taking into account the gradual decline of international oil prices in the third quarter, eventually leading to a reduction in the domestic aviation kerosene ex-factory price of at least 11% and readjustment of fuel pressure; benefiting from the implementation of favorable policies such as lower oil prices and halving the collection of civil aviation funds, June-September 2019The unit operating cost is zero.

34 yuan, an annual increase of 3.

03%, showing a good cost control ability, but also shows that the 787 wide-body machine is a drag on costs.

Investment strategy: Benefiting from the increase in the proportion of private consumption in China’s aviation industry, Juneyao Airlines ‘special differentiated positioning position allows it to enjoy the flexibility of both the cost and income sides; considering that the three major airlines 北京夜网 will be affected by the 737max capacity gap in the future, Juneyao AirlinesWith a large number of co-flight routes with three major airlines, and the increase in the price of first- and second-line routes, the revenue is large; at the same time, the 787 wide-body aircraft increases operating leverage, with the substantial increase in daily replacement, the wide-body aircraft’s drag on performance is eliminated, auspiciousAviation performance is expected to bottom out and rebound.

Adjust the company’s EPS in 19-21 to 0.

71, 0.

89, 1.

17 yuan, corresponding to 22, 17, 13 times PE on November 4, maintaining “Buy” rating.

Risk reminders: uncertainties in industry-related policies, industry supply-demand imbalances, macroeconomic growth stalls, escalation of international trade frictions, air crashes, terrorist attacks, wars, disease outbreaks and other uncertain events