GF strategy: If the epidemic ushers in an inflection point, what to configure?
The stock market depends on the research report of Jin Qilin analysts. It is authoritative, professional, timely and comprehensive, helping you to explore potential topic opportunities!
[Guangfa Strategy]If the epidemic is approaching an inflection point, what will be configured?
——周末五分钟全知道（2月第2期） 来源：广发策略研究 戴康（金麒麟分析师）、俞一奇（金麒麟分析师） 报告摘要 全国新增NCP确诊人数有所下行，但伴随复工The tide has begun. When the current epidemic appears a clear inflection point, it remains to be confirmed.
Observing the decline (analogous A50 decline during the SARS period in 2003 and the Spring Festival in 20 years), the valuation level of A shares, the relative return on stock bonds, and the US Standard & Poor’s 500 Volatility Index (VIX), it is observed that A shares are experiencing a sharp declineAfter that, the odds have become more attractive, and the bottom is now available (see our report “The bottom is now” on February 5, 20).
● The market is concerned if the epidemic situation ushers in an improvement in the inflection point, what will be deployed?
The industry rotation gradually returns to the medium-term main line along the order of the impact of the epidemic.
In the experience of SARS in 2003, the inflection point of the epidemic emerged, the benefit of the epidemic situation or the performance of pure hedging industries rose from leading to lagging, and the combination of loose liquidity, stable economy, but weak recovery strength, the species that were relatively less affected by the epidemic (TMT) Lead the rally first, and then the molecular end affects the basic digestion, the economy accelerates upward, liquidity tightens, and the market returns to the medium-term main line (five golden flowers) of relatively low valuation and upward earnings.
● It is expected that after the inflection point of this round of the epidemic, the main line of industry configuration will be closer to the industrial logic.
Compared with 2003, we expect the economic recovery to be relatively weak but the continuity of the counter-cyclical hedging policy will be stronger and the liquidity environment will remain loose. Therefore, the style disturbance caused by economic growth and liquidity changes is less than that in 2003. The industry configurationThe growth rate (expected) of medium profit is more weighted.
It is expected that after the inflection point of the current round of epidemic, in the industries with higher early gains, pure event-driven or hedging sectors will make up for the decline, but even if the segments containing mid-term business logic give up some of the gains in stages, they will still have the support of industrial logic.Power up again.
In addition, the pre-epidemic situation was relatively strong, and the sectors that were less affected by the epidemic and whose industrial logic is still stable will gradually return.
● Industry configuration focuses more on medium-term industrial logic.
(1) Sectors that benefit from short-term events and support by industrial logic in the medium term: a. Media (video, games); b. Internet medical, online office; c. IT infrastructure (IDC, server, storage).
(2) The impact of the incident is limited, and the logic is stable in the medium term: a. Electronics (consumer electronics, semiconductors, panels); b. New energy vehicle industry chain (midstream lithium batteries and components-upstream lithium battery materials-midstream electric control-electric vehicle) c. 5G software.
● The bottom of the A shares is now available. After the resumption of work, the inflection point of the epidemic situation needs to be closely followed to prevent fluctuations in the benefit sector.
The downward trend in the discount rate driving the “slow bull on the financial supply side” will not be damaged by the epidemic.
The odds of A shares after the plunge have become more attractive, and the bottom of the shock has already appeared.
If the improvement of the inflection point after the resumption of work is further clear, the rotation of the A-share industry will return to the middle line along the order of the affected by the epidemic.
Among the beneficiary sectors with higher current gains, pure event-driven strong stocks make up the decline. The sector with medium-term industrial logic will still revert to upward momentum even if it faces certain adjustments. The impact of the event is limited, and the sector with stable medium-term industrial logic will gradually return.
The configuration grasps two main lines: (1) benefit from short-term events and logical support in the mid-term; (2) limited impact of the event and logic stability in the mid-term upwards.
Recommended configuration: Internet medical, gaming, new energy vehicles, consumer electronics.
● Risk prompts: Epidemic control is repeated, economic growth is lower than expected, and overseas uncertainties.
The main body of the report (1) Express delivery 北京保健按摩 of core viewpoints (1) The impact analysis framework based on the odds and odds of the event: the bottom of the A shares is now available.
The adjustment of time and space after the opening of the market generally confirms our judgment. Experience shows that as long as the event shock does not undermine the core logic of the stock market (early last year we proposed that the discount rate drives the financial supply side slow bull) are opportunities to buy.
(1) The stock market is very smart and will hit the low point ahead of the event; (2) Investors in history will always expect a lot of disasters but few of them will be fulfilled. Panic is a good opportunity to buy quality stocks.
The impact of the new crown epidemic is in line with these two points.
When the stock market encounters an event shock, the vast majority of investors are not dominant when judging the progress of the event. At this time, the analysis framework of win rate & odds is most suitable. Win rate refers to the probability of the event itself improving, and odds refers toThe asset price has been included in the risk compensation.
In the early and middle stages of an event, it is often difficult to judge the winning rate, but if the odds are attractive, it often constitutes the best investment opportunity, and in the later stages of the event, clearer indicator changes may help determine the trend of the event’s winning rate.
(2) With reference to the experience of SARS in 2003, during the process of repairing market risk appetite after the inflection point of the epidemic emerged, the epidemic benefit or pure hedging industry performance rose from leading to lagging, and industry rotation followed the impact of the epidemic from small to large.The order gradually returns from the varieties affected by the epidemic to the main line of middle school.
Many investors believe that the current A-share market environment is significantly different from the SARS period in 2003, so the comparability is not high. We are at 2.
2 “03 is a mirror, thinking more than rewriting history” puts forward that “the impact of the 20-year epidemic situation of new coronavirus pneumonia on the capital market cannot be simply reprinted in the whole 03 years.
However, the development of the stock market is always “always changing,” except that the specific species and extent of the short-term epidemic benefit / damage, medium-term macro policies, economic growth, and industrial logic are different.It can be used as a reference for investment.
1. The number of newly diagnosed SARS patients in 2003 declined for 3 consecutive days at the end of April but repeated again and again in early May. We took the severely hit area in Beijing at that time to announce a sharp decline in the number of new patients as the clear turning point for the 2003 SARS incident (May 9).Until the WHO announced that the epidemic area was deactivated in Beijing (June 24), that is, from the inflection point of the epidemic to the end of the event, the market’s performance: (1) the market as a whole changed from falling to fluctuating, and the liquidity was relatively moderate.Small cap; (2) The epidemic that has performed well in the early stage benefited or the medicine and banks in the defense sector fell significantly behind; (3) The performance of TMT, which was less affected by the epidemic, led; (4) Five golden flowers in the medium term, which were greatly affected by the epidemicAnd tourism performance recovered but did not lead the gains.
TMT still performed the best two months after the event basically ended (June 24-August 31).
The growth rate of GDP in the second quarter dropped by 2 percentage points from the first quarter, while the growth rate of M2 exceeded 20% and continued to rise rapidly.
Since the third quarter, the economy has gradually recovered from the shock, but the recovery has been weak, and the PPI has increased by 0.
1%, industrial added value rose by 0.3 percentage points. With the initial recovery of profits but weak recovery, relatively abundant liquidity, and the deviation of the previous nominal GDP and M2 growth rates, the market still chooses the TMT sector, which has a relatively small impact on the profit and benefits from loose liquidity.
From two months to the end (August 31-December 31) after the impact of the event’s basic digestion, the market style returned to the logic of the middle main line-five golden flowers.
On August 23, the People’s Bank of China announced that it will increase the deposit reserve of financial institutions from September 21, 2003 to rectify the excessive growth of the money supply, tightening the liquidity environment more and more, meanwhile, it means that the epidemic has affected economic growth.The impact of the economy was basically digested, and the growth rate of M2 and nominal GDP gradually diverged from convergence to convergence.
The economy continued to recover. In November, when the PPI began to accelerate upward, the profitability of the cyclical sector represented by five golden flowers continued to rise, and the market returned to the medium line.
(3) Mapping to the current, after the epidemic inflection point is expected, in the industry with higher gains in the current round, pure event-driven sectors will fill the gap, but the sectors that contain business logic even phased out some of the gains, and still regain upward momentum.
In addition, affected by the epidemic, the sector with a stable industrial logic will gradually return.
The current market is still centered on medicine, environmental protection (sewage solid waste treatment, cleaning and disinfection services), online services and consumption (video, games, online education, medical informatization, video conferencing, remote office, cloud services), etc.
According to the experience of 2003, after the inflection point of the epidemic, the performance of the beneficiary or purely safe-haven industries has risen from leading to lagging, and the industry rotation has been gradually affected by the epidemic.The main line is back.
However, compared with the inflection point in 2003, we expect that the current economic recovery is weaker than in 2003 but the sustainability of the countercyclical hedging policy is stronger than in 2003. The liquidity environment remains moderate and easy, so economic growth and changes in liquidity have a negative impact on style.The disturbance is less than 2003, and the weight of the growth rate (expected) of the profit in the industry configuration is more important.
The epidemic has accelerated changes in production and lifestyle. Online service consumption, production automation, and medicine and health have become key areas, including event-driven changes that also contain changes in medium-term business logic.
If the inflection point of the epidemic occurs, in the current higher-rising sector, pure event-driven supplementary declines are expected, while the sector containing intermediate business logic may phase out some of the event-driven gains and then regain upward momentum.
In addition, after the impact of the epidemic has been gradually digested, the impact of the epidemic is relatively limited. The pre-epidemic performance was strong and the technology growth with intermediate industry logic: new energy vehicles, 5G, etc. will continue to perform.
(D) Configuration direction: 1.
The short-term events benefited, and the sector supported by the medium-term industrial logic (1) Media (video, games): Short-term epidemic impacts boosted demand, and video and game downloads increased.
The ultra-high-definition video innovation driven by the mid-term 5G cycle will bring the value of large-screen scenes back, and games may become one of the core scenarios of 5G applications.
(2) Internet medical treatment and remote work: The explosive demand growth caused by the epidemic, reducing the cost of promotion and climbing, and cultivating user habits. After the epidemic is over, it is expected that a large number of users will be retained to drive up the user base and even increase the field even more.Input.
(3) IT infrastructure (IDC, server, storage): The explosive growth of short-term medical informatization, online office, etc. has promoted the increase in demand for IT infrastructure, and gradually realized the acceleration of the transmission speed in the 5G era, and the formation of demand for the explosion of data trafficsupport.
2. The impact of the incident is limited and the logic is stable in the medium term. (1) Electronics (consumer electronics, semiconductors, panels): The semiconductor industry cycle has entered the upward cycle, and the non-stop Spring Festival is affected by the epidemic.Under the tide, the elastic growth of the electronic sector’s profit growth.
(2) New energy vehicle industry chain: clear promotion from top to bottom, huge industrial space and potential catalysts, continue to pay attention to the four major investment chains: “midstream lithium batteries and components-upstream lithium battery materials-midstream electric control-electric powerLocomotive “, of which the temporary increase in the value of the bicycle is the largest.
(3) Software: 5G business provides support for application scenarios where various devices are interconnected at a communication-intensive technical level.
Corresponding development soil for various emerging applications.
The era of the Internet of Everything has begun, the interaction of various IOT devices has been enhanced, and software requirements have increased significantly.
For details, please refer to our 5205 report “200G Leads Technology Investment into the Honeymoon” in 200105, and 200115 “Can the Theme of New Energy Vehicles Be” Transformed “?
“And the new energy vehicle report” 20620 Momentum of New Energy Vehicles “.
(5) The bottom of A shares is now available.
If the turning point of the epidemic situation is further improved after the resumption of work, the rotation of the A-share industry will return to the medium-term main line in the order of impact from the epidemic.
Among the beneficiary sectors with higher current gains, pure event-driven strong stocks make up for the decline. The sector with medium-term industrial logic will still have renewed upward momentum even if it faces some adjustments. The sector with limited event impact and stable medium-term industrial logic will gradually return.
The downward trend in the discount rate driving the “slow bull on the financial supply side” will not be damaged by the epidemic.
The number of newly diagnosed NCPs nationwide has declined, but with the resumption of labor resumption, the inflection point of the epidemic situation still needs to be observed, and the odds of winning are still unknown. The odds of A shares after the sharp decline have already attracted, and the bottom of the shock has now appeared.
After the inflection point of the epidemic in 2003, the performance of the beneficiary-benefit or purely safe-haven industries changed from leading to lagging, and the industry rotated through the order of the impact of the epidemic from small to large, gradually returning from the species that were relatively affected by the epidemic to the middle line.
This epidemic has accelerated the changes in production and life. Online service consumption, production automation, and medical and health have become key areas. If the inflection point of the epidemic occurs, in the sector leading the rise in the early stage, pure event-driven categories may make up the decline, but it contains intermediate business logic.The sector even gave up part of the increase in stages, and it still regained upward momentum under the support of industrial logic.
In addition, affected by the epidemic, the sector with a stable industrial logic will gradually return.
Industry configuration recommendations: Internet medical, gaming, new energy vehicles, consumer electronics.
2 Important changes this week 2.
1 Real estate demand in the downstream of Zhongguan industry: Wind30 large and medium-sized city transaction data show that on February 07, 2020, the real estate transaction area of 30 large and medium-sized cities gradually decreased by 24.
67%, about -20 last week.
38% continued to decline, and the real estate transaction area in 30 large and medium-sized cities fell 98% month-on-month.
71%, a monthly decrease of 94.
96%, week-on-month decrease of 2.
Ports: The container explosion in coastal ports in January was 18.83 million TEUs, lower than 19.52 million in December last year, a decrease of 4%.
Midstream steel manufacturing: The average price of steel prices fell this week, and the rebar price index fell by 1 this week.
04% to 3755.
97 yuan / ton, the cold rolled price index fell 0.
70% to 4408.
48 yuan / ton.
As of February 7, the rebar futures closed at 3,325 yuan / ton, down 5% from January 23.
Cement: In the first week after the holiday, the price of the domestic cement market dropped by 0.
National high standard 42.
5The average price of cement dropped by 0 from last week.
29% to 463.
8 yuan / ton.
Among them, the average price in East China dropped by 0 from last week.
52% to 542.
14 yuan / ton, the Central South area fell 0.
64% to 518.
33 yuan / ton, North China remained unchanged at 445.
0 yuan / ton.
Chemicals: Domestic urea dropped by 1.
86% to 1639.
00 yuan / ton, light soda ash (East China) remained unchanged at 1500.
00 yuan / ton, PVC (acetylene method) is stable at 6,635.
00 yuan / ton, polyester filament (POY) stabilized at 7150.
00 yuan / ton, styrene butadiene rubber fell 3.
62% to 10939.
00 yuan / ton, pure MDI stabilized at 15,550.
00 yuan / ton, in terms of international chemical prices, international ethylene rose 6.
78% to 788.
00 US dollars / ton, the international pure benzene stabilized at 732.
00 US dollars / ton, international urea fell 0.
94% to 210.
00 USD / ton.
Upstream resources coal and iron ore: This week’s iron ore prices have fallen, iron ore stocks have increased, coal prices have remained stable, and coal stocks have fallen.
The average domestic iron ore price fell by 1.
73% to 745.
58 yuan / ton, Taiyuan Gujiao car plate price including tax stabilized at 1440.
00 yuan / ton; in terms of inventory, Qinhuangdao coal inventory decreased by 7 this week.
91% to 390.
In April, the port iron ore inventory increased by 1.
66% to 12557.
International bulk: WTI fell 5 this week.
74% to 51.
At $ 23 per barrel, Brent fell 8.
94% to 54.
At $ 50 per barrel, the LME metal price index stabilized at 2862.
40, the commodity CRB index fell 0 this week.
05% to 170.
18; BDI index fell 14 this week.
78% to 415.
2 Stock market characteristics Stock market ups and downs: The Shanghai Composite Index fell sharply this week 3.
38%, the top three gains in the industry are medical and biological (5.
98%), computer (4.
19%) and the media (3.
24%); the last three gains were architectural decoration (-6.
91%), real estate (-7.
07%) and mining (-7.
Dynamic estimation: The overall PE (TTM) of A shares this week from last week 17.
28 times down to 16 this week.
75 times that PB (LF) from 1 last week.
65 times down to 1 this week.
61 times; A shares excluding the financial services industry PE (TTM) from 28 last week.
06 times down to 27 this week.
24x, PB (LF) from last week 2.
12 times down to 2 this week.
07 times; GEM PE (TTM) from 181 last week.
13 times rose to 190 this week.
97 times, PB (LF) from last week 4.
02 times rose to 4 this week.
12 times; small and medium plate PE (TTM) from 47 last week.
74 times down to 47 this week.
18 times, PB (LF) from last week 2.
80 times down to 2 this week.
76 times; the overall market value of A shares has fallen by 2 from last week.
63%; the total market value of the financial services industry, excluding A shares, fell by 1 from last week.
85%; required consumption relative to cyclical listed companies’ relative PB from last week2.
39 times rose to 2 this week.
52 times; relative PE (TTM) of ChiNext to CSI 300 from 15 last week.
14 times rose to 16 this week.
49 times; relative PB (LF) of ChiNext to CSI 300 from last week 2.
81 times rose to 2 this week.
98 times; equity risk premium from 0 last week.
57% rose to 0 this week.
87%, stock market returns from last week 3.
45% rose to 3 this week.
Fund size: This week’s new equity + hybrid fund share was 2 billion shares, compared with 7.7 billion shares last week.
The fund net cumulative net increase this week was 96.
29 billion copies.
Balance of margin financing and securities lending: As of Thursday, February 6, the balance of margin financing and securities lending is 10,324.
0.5 billion, down 2 from last week.
Restrictions on restricted shares: 9378 restrictions on restricted shares were lifted this week.
6.1 billion yuan, 5920 is expected to be lifted next week.
7.9 billion yuan.
Large and small non-reduction: The overall size of A shares this week is a non-net reduction of 19.
At 3.4 billion, the industries that have reduced their holdings this week are the media (-15 billion), and pharmaceutical bio (-9.
9.9 billion), computer (-5.
4.7 billion), the industry that has increased the most this week is banks (13.
9.6 billion), steel (3.
5.8 billion), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing (1.
Funds from the north: This week, the net inflow of funds from the northbound stock exchange to the north was 300.
6 billion, a net decrease of -154 last week.
6.1 billion yuan.
AH premium index: The A / H share premium index fell to 123 this week.
07. Last week, the A / H share premium index was 135.
3Liquidity is scheduled on February 7, and there will be a total of 4 reverse repurchases this week, with a cumulative total of $ 1.7 trillion, and a total of 3 reverse repurchase terminations, totaling $ 380 billion; total net market operations (including treasury cash)1,320 billion yuan.
4 Overseas US: January Manufacturing PMI50 announced on Monday.
90, higher than the previous value of 47.
Monday announced December construction expenditures (US $ million) of 1,321,474, which was lower than the previous value of 1,324,122.
On Tuesday, all manufacturing industries were announced in December: new orders (US $ million) were 494,698.
00, higher than the previous value of 474,402.
Wednesday announced the January non-manufacturing PMI55.
50, consistent with the previous value.
Wednesday announced the number of January ADP employment: MoM: Seasonally adjusted 0.
22%, higher than the previous value of 0.
The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the week of February 01 was announced on Thursday: 202,000 seasonal adjustments (persons).
00, lower than the previous value of 217,000.
Friday announced the number of new non-farm employment in January: seasonally adjusted 225,000, higher than the previous value of 147,000.
Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI47 for January was announced on Monday.
90, higher than expected 46.
80, higher than the previous value of 46.
EU announced on December: PPI: multiple times.
00%, higher than the previous value of -0.
December EU: Retail Sales Index released on Wednesday: 2% per year, in line with previous values.
United Kingdom: Announced January manufacturing PMI50 on Monday.
00, higher than the previous value of 47.
Japan: Announced January manufacturing PMI48 on Monday.
80, higher than the previous value of 48.
The base currency for January was announced on Tuesday: ten years 2.
90%, lower than the previous value of 3.
Wednesday announced the January service industry PMI51.
00, higher than the previous value of 49.
Overseas stock markets this week: The S & P 500 is up 3 this week.
17% closed at 3327.
71 points; FTSE London rose 2.
48% closed at 7466.
70 points; German DAX rose 4.
10% closed at 13513.
81 points; Nikkei 225 rose 2.
68% closed at 23827.
98 points; Hang Seng rose 4.
15% closed at 27404.
2.5 Macro industrial enterprise profit: China’s industrial enterprise profit in December: sustainable for three years.
3%, lower than the previous value of -2.
Foreign exchange reserves: January foreign exchange reserves were 31,154.
US $ 9.7 billion, higher than the previous value of 31,79.
$ 2.4 billion.
Caixin Manufacturing PMI: China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI51 in January.
10, lower than the previous value of 51.
3List of data to be announced next week Highlights for next week: China ‘s January CPI: longer, China ‘s January PPI: longer, China ‘s January M0: longer, China ‘s January M1: longer, China ‘s January M2: annual, US January core CPI: one year ago, UK fourth quarter GDP (initial value): time: seasonal adjustment Monday, February 10: China January CPI: same period, China January PPI: longer February 11 Tuesday: China’s January M0: Longer, China’s January M1: Every year, China’s January M2: Every year, China’s January social financing scale: current month value, China’s new RMB loan in January, UK’s fourth quarter GDP (initial value): Alternate: Seasonally adjusted Wednesday, February 12th: EU December Industrial Production Index: Every year; US February 7th EIA Inventory Weekly Report: Finished Gasoline (Thousand Barrels) Thursday, February 13th: US January Core CPI: Annually,Number of U.S. initial jobless claims in the week of February 08: Seasonally adjusted, Japan’s January corporate commodity price index: Friday, February 14: China’s fourth quarter current account balance: Current quarter value: Preliminary figures, US core in JanuaryTotal retail sales: Seasonally adjusted: MoM, U.S. industrial capacity utilization rate in January (%), EU trade gap in DecemberAmount: Seasonally adjusted (in millions of Euros) Risk reminder: 反复 Repeated epidemic control, lower than expected economic growth, overseas uncertainty.