Tiantan Biological (600161): Steady growth of the leader whose performance exceeds expectations

Tiantan Biological (600161): Steady growth of the leader whose performance exceeds expectations

Event Tiantan Biological released the 2019 performance forecast. In the first half of 2019, the company expects to achieve a net profit of 2 attributable to mothers.

98 billion, an increase of 23 from the same period last year.

About 94%, the net profit after deducting non-attribution is 2.

97 billion, an increase of 25 from the same period last year.

About 16%.

Calculate the net profit attributable to mothers in the second quarter of 20191.

660,000 yuan, an increase of 27 in ten years.

80%; deduct non-attributed net profit1.

6.6 billion, an annual increase of 28.

14%.

The short-scored performance exceeded market expectations. The main reason was that the rebound in prices caused by the contraction of supply in the industry overlapped with the three major operations. The company’s performance in the first half of the year changed the market expectation. The single-quarter performance in Q2 2019 was faster than Q1, and it was deducted from the non-growth rate in Q2 2018.

The 19% high growth base continued to achieve a single quarter of 28.

The growth of 14% shows that the company’s performance has entered a fast track of continuous growth.

The main reason for the performance growth is that we believe that there are two main aspects: First, the growth rate of pulp extraction in the industry has dropped to 7% since the end of the year, and the decline in imported albumin has reached 13% in the first half of this year.Leading companies have begun to raise prices. Second, Tiantan’s own operations have continued to improve. Since the reorganization in January 2018, Chengdu Rongsheng has exported technology and management experience to the three major firms, and the volume and operating performance of the three major firms have continued to improve.The overall profit growth of Tiantan is expected to be faster than the industry average.

In the short term, the industry’s supply growth rate is affected by early emerging events. Supervision continues to strengthen the unpredictable growth of its batches of issuance. The trend of price pick-up growth continues. The company’s pulp extraction forecast will maintain a steady growth of two figures.Continuous improvement, the company’s annual revenue of 32 trillion in May, 900 million net profit (the listed company holds Rongsheng 69.

47% equity, net profit attributable to mother is 6.

25 trillion, 23% growth) business goals are expected to be successfully achieved, and maintain rapid and steady growth.

In the first half of the year, the company’s batch of issuance was generally stable, better than the industry average.

880,000 bottles, growing by 2 every year.

1%, far better than the domestic and the industry’s overall growth rate, the industry’s overall albumin replacement in the first half.

At 5%, there was a tight balance between supply and demand in some parts of the country, the terminal price of albumin began to pick up, and some leading companies began to raise the ex-factory price; Jingbing completed the first batch of issuance97.

530,000 bottles, with a ten-year average of 16.

5%, which is similar to the industry average. This will also change the supply and demand pattern of static propane. The grassroots discovery shows that the average inventory of the company and the channel has started to decline, and leading companies have started to raise prices.

In terms of exempt products, the company completed the issuance of exemptions in the first half of the year62.

940 thousand bottles, an increase of 75 in ten years.

7%, completed the issuance of B exemption 18.

250,000 bottles, an increase of 14 in ten years.

4%.

The leader in the blood products industry, long-term growth prospects are determined, and the company that maintains an overweight rating is the company with the clearest planned production capacity in the blood products industry. Considering that the Chengdu Yongan Base will be put into production in the first half of 2021 and the upcoming construction of the Yunnan Yunnan Base, the company will-In 5 years, it is expected to reach 3500-4000 tons of plasma processing capacity, catching up with the scale of international first-line blood products companies; meanwhile, the capacity of pulp extraction has 杭州夜网 steadily increased, and the newly established pulp station fully relies on the advantages of Sinopharm Group.Highest identified among similar companies.

At present, the company’s ton pulp income, profit and market value are significantly lower than those of comparable companies in the industry. It is expected that after the completion of the Chengdu Yongan and Yunnan bases, the number of blood products will increase and the production process will bring significant performance flexibility.

We maintain our profit forecast for 2019-2021 as 6.

21, 7.

48 and 9.

46 ppm, an increase of 21 in ten years.

9%, 20.

5% and 26.

4%, the current sustainable corresponding to 2019-2021 is 33, 27 and 21 times PE respectively, maintaining the level of overweight, investors are advised to actively allocate.

Risk Warning 1.Safety issues of blood products and supervision risks of apheresis stations; 2.

Risks that the construction progress of Chengdu Yongan Base and Yunnan Central Yunnan Base is not up to expectations; 3.

The progress of new product development and launch is not up to expectations; 4.

Mining defects plus the risk of underutilization of a large amount of capacity.